Despite having Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons, George Pickens, and other standout players in their lineup, the Dallas Cowboys are not expected to make the NFL playoffs this year.
Based on preseason betting odds, the Cowboys are perceived to have around a 30% probability to make the postseason.
There are many factors going into it, including roster talent, a new head coach in Brian Schottenheimer, Dak Prescott’s growing injury history, and sharing the NFC East with two rivals that battled in the NFC Championship Game last January.
Per the same betting odds from bet365, the Philadelphia Eagles have an 83% likelihood of making it to the postseason and the Washington Commanders sit at 58%.
In other words, oddsmakers expect the Eagles and Washington to make it but not the Cowboys. This is where things get intriguing. The Commanders’ fate could largely impact the Cowboys’ chances.
A Commanders’ downfall could propel the Cowboys to the playoffs
This is going to be a tight year in the NFC and any team struggling more than expected could be a huge favor for the Cowboys, specially one within the division.
The NFC North has four potential playoff teams in the Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers. The West could send multiple teams, too. And the East, well. . . with a healthy Prescott, you can’t rule out any team not named the New York Giants.
Many of the teams vying for a wild card spot are filled with question marks and the Commanders are a prime example.
The Jayden Daniels hype is well deserved, and I don’t view them as a “Cinderella story” team unable to replicate its 2024 success.
But is there risk the Commanders have a down year like the Houston Texans after C.J. Stroud had one of the best seasons in rookie history? Yes. I think so. They share some similarities and there are multiple reasons why they could collapse in 2025.
Firstly, the roster still has plenty of roster holes. At wide receiver, Terry McLaurin is the only playmaker that has been elite in the last couple of years. Deebo Samuel is a question mark due to injuries and age and while Noah Brown is serviceable, he is far from a concern for opposing defenses.
The offensive line is improved in large part thanks to the addition of left tackle Laremy Tunsil but he’s joining the team after the worst season of his career. Was it the exception or the beginning of a decline for the soon-to-be 31-year-old tackle?
Defensively, the trenches and backfield could be a concern, even though linebacker is looking great. There are big names on the D-line, but many of them are in latter stages of their careers or haven’t lived up the expectations set for their careers (Javon Kinlaw, Daron Payne, Deatrich Wise, Clelin Ferrell). As for the defensive backfield, Marshon Lattimore needs to bounce back for the unit to be considered strong.
And the Commanders. . . they aren’t exactly the youngest roster in the NFL. Per Eagles writer Jimmy Kempski—who wrote about ten reasons why the Commanders will struggle—”they have 30 (!) players who are 29 years of age already, or older.” The next team on the list is at 19.
The Cowboys have a shot at out-winning the Commanders
Simply put, I believe there’s too much we don’t know about either of these teams. But acting like Washington is no doubt going to out-win Dallas seems wild to me. It’s going to be close. And when push comes to shove, if one of these teams sweeps the other it could be the difference maker between a playoff trip and watching from the couch.
